The Political Economy of Illicit Arms Flows in Nigeria: Trafficking Networks, State Weakness, and Armed Violence
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18485/Keywords:
illicit arms trafficking, small arms and light weapons, conflict economy, security governance, armed violence, NigeriaAbstract
This study examines the persistence of illicit arms trafficking in Nigeria through the political economy of conflict framework. Using a qualitative explanatory case-study design, the study conducts a theory-guided thematic analysis of 95 documentary sources published between 2009 and 2026, including scholarly publications, institutional reports, policy documents, and investigative reports. The analysis identifies three principal themes, trafficking networks, conflict economies, and security governance, and a higher-order integrative theme of the self-reproducing political economy of illicit arms trafficking. The findings indicate that illicit arms trafficking persists through reinforcing interactions among trafficking networks, conflict economies, and security governance weaknesses. Conflict economies generate sustained demand for firearms, trafficking networks adapt to market opportunities, and security governance weaknesses, including corruption, institutional fragmentation, weak stockpile management, and inconsistent enforcement, limit the capacity of state institutions to detect, disrupt, and prosecute trafficking activities, enabling armed actors to sustain organised violence. The analysis suggests that illicit arms trafficking constitutes a structural feature of Nigeria’s wider political economy of violence, in which firearms function as productive assets facilitating resource extraction, territorial control, and criminal accumulation. Because the study relies on secondary documentary evidence relating to a clandestine activity, the findings are constrained by the availability, quality, and verifiability of existing sources. The study contributes to debates on security governance and conflict economies by advancing an integrated explanation of the political and institutional processes that sustain illicit arms trafficking beyond accounts centred primarily on illegal supply, porous borders, or regional conflict spillovers. This explanation provides a basis for more coordinated research, policy formulation, and security governance responses in Nigeria and comparable conflict-affected settings.
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