The Delphi Method in Security Threat Assessment: Principles, Applications, and Methodological Challenges

Authors

  • Josef Smolík Police Academy of the Czech Republic in Prague, Department of Security Studies Author
  • Ivana Olecká Police Academy of the Czech Republic in Prague, Department of Security Studies Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18485/

Keywords:

Delphi method, security threats, expert assessment, strategic decision-making, military planning

Abstract

This methodological review examines the Delphi method as an approach to structured expert judgement for the assessment of security threats and its potential application in defence-related decision-making. The paper is based on a narrative methodological review of the literature synthesising the principal methodological concepts, variants, procedures, strengths, limitations, and representative applications of the Delphi method in defence and security research. Particular attention is devoted to methodological requirements for expert selection, consensus assessment, uncertainty communication, and the interpretation of expert judgements in complex security environments. The article further illustrates the practical application of the method through a hypothetical Delphi study protocol and an accompanying threat assessment matrix developed for illustrative purposes. The principal contribution of the paper lies in integrating general Delphi methodology with the specific methodological and organisational challenges of defence and security research. The review concludes that the Delphi method provides a valuable framework for structuring expert judgement under conditions of uncertainty; however, its findings should be interpreted as conditional expert assessments that require careful methodological design and, where possible, validation through empirical evidence or complementary analytical approaches.

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Author Biographies

  • Josef Smolík, Police Academy of the Czech Republic in Prague, Department of Security Studies

    An associate professor at the Department of Security Studies, Police Academy of the Czech Republic in Prague. He studied political science, psychology, and social pedagogy at Masaryk University. His expertise lies in criminology, security studies, radical political parties, political psychology, and youth subcultures. He is the author of over 200 academic articles and (co-)author of 17 academic monographs (e.g., Youth Subcultures: Sociological, Psychological, and Pedagogical Aspects, 2017; Psychology of Terrorism and Radicalization: How Lambs Become Wolves, 2020; New Political Parties in the Party Systems of the Czech Republic, 2022, The Internal Security in the Visegrad Group, 2025)

  • Ivana Olecká, Police Academy of the Czech Republic in Prague, Department of Security Studies

    Assistant Professor at the Department of Criminology, Faculty of Security and Law, Police Academy of the Czech Republic in Prague. She studied sociology and journalism and completed her doctoral studies in the field of social medicine. As a recognized expert in research methodology, she focuses on the study of social deviations. Her research addresses topics such as child violent deaths, characteristics of offenders, parental resilience, social risk factors, and care for specific groups.  She is a member of the Czech Sociological Association of Masaryk (MČSS), the Czech Criminological Association, and the Association of Counsellors for the Bereaved. She has an extensive publishing record, having authored numerous monographs and scientific articles, many of which are indexed in Web of Science and Scopus.

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Published

05.08.2026

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): International Journal of Contemporary Security Studies (First Online - Accepted Papers)

Section

International Journal of Contemporary Security Studies

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Copyright (c) 2026 Josef Smolík, Ivana Olecká (Author)

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How to Cite

Smolík, J., & Olecká, I. (2026). The Delphi Method in Security Threat Assessment: Principles, Applications, and Methodological Challenges. International Journal of Contemporary Security Studies, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.18485/

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